“Obama has won more states, more votes and more delegates,” so notes CNN’s Jessica Yellin.
This simple yet poignant point illustrates just how difficult Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House has become. Polls continue to indicate that the New York Senator is leading in the next big primary, Pennsylvania on April 22nd. But her margin is being whittled away by Barack Obama. It is likely that Mrs. Clinton can win Pennsylvania yet will still be far enough behind in delegates that she will not be able to catch up to her rival by the Democratic National Convention in Denver this summer. And if Senator Obama wins Pennsylvania, it would be increasingly difficult for Mrs. Clinton to justify not leaving the race.
In the interim, however, Mrs. Clinton needs to find a way to stop the bleeding. Numerous superdelegates have recently pledged their support for Mr. Obama. High ranking Democrats are publicly saying Mrs. Clinton needs to drop out. It’s too early for that, but Mrs. Clinton needs to find a way to pull superdelegates to her side. A victory in Pennsylvania may give her temporary momentum. But if she fails to score a resounding victory, much like the Texas and Ohio primaries, her momentum will be short lived.
It seems as though a critical mass of superdelegates is building behind Mr. Obama. The question now starts to become “what is the tipping point?” Some have said an endorsement by former Vice President Al Gore would put Obama over the top. That may be the case, but don’t expect such an endorsement until after Pennsylvania. There are also rumblings that a bulk of Pennsylvania superdelgates will be endorsing Mr. Obama en masse before the primary. That could be especially relevant if Mr. Obama loses by a slight margin to Mrs. Clinton in the state’s popular vote, but secures more total delegates coming out of the contest. That would be a painful, and possibly fatal, blow to the Clinton campaign should that be the case.
The Democratic race is slowly coming to a head. If Senator Clinton can’t win convincingly in the Keystone state, I expect a wave of superdelegates to pledge support for Mr. Obama and that he will secure a de facto nomination. However if Mrs. Clinton can win convincingly on April 22nd, by say 15 points or more, the race will likely not be decided until the convention. Such a protracted arrangement would be disastrous for the Democrats. Alas, a Clinton nomination appears to be evolving into an unlikely and worst-possible scenario for the party.
