The only way the Apple TV is going to succeed is if the folks in Cupertino turn it into a DVR.
Jobs’ schtick is that consumers don’t know what they want until you give it to them, think of the Henry Ford argument that if he had asked people what they wanted they would have said “a faster horse.” Okay, I get that. If you had asked people if they wanted a keyboardless smartphone very few people would have said yes, but that very feature gives the iPhone a distinct advantage over just about every other phone out there.
But the movies and downloadable TV shows and video podcasts isn’t going to cut it. When people watch TV, most of what they’re watching is coming from networks. Sure they’re watching movies, but for the mainstream, that is a secondary feature. A fully functional DVR would be what brings the masses to actually buy an Apple TV. But Jobs & Co. hate subscription services (you can already hear El Jobso gnashing his teeth over having to charge iPod Touch users for every software update). And a subscription service is probably the only feasible way to have the Apple TV work as a DVR.
